IFO Releases
2022 Demographic Outlook
October 05, 2022 | Economics and Other
Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28.
Tags: demographic, demographics, outlook
Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives?
September 29, 2022 | Economics and Other
A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. Research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives.
Student Loan Debt Forgiveness
August 31, 2022 | Economics and Other
The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program.
County Income Patterns
August 16, 2022 | Economics and Other
This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth.
Pennsylvania's Gasoline Tax
June 13, 2022 | Economics and Other
The IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285.
Inflation's Impact on the Pennsylvania Economy
June 07, 2022 | Economics and Other
On June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget.
Tags: economy, inflation, pennsylvania
PA Residents Migrating to Southern States
June 02, 2022 | Economics and Other
The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older.
BUDGET AND ECONOMIC UPDATE PRESENTATION
March 31, 2022 | Economics and Other
Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.
Tags: gas, marcellus, natural, presentation, shale
Senate Budget Hearing Request
March 21, 2022 | Economics and Other
The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to two questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to an update of the IFO’s five-year projections for revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget and an estimate of school district property taxes paid by seniors.
House Budget Hearing Request
March 21, 2022 | Economics and Other
The IFO responded to a question raised at the office’s budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. The question relates to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment by race.