Mid-Year Update FY 2022-23The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. Tags: estimates, mid, revenue, year |
Economic and Budget Update PresentationDirector Knittel made a presentation of the mid-year update to the House Budget Roundtable. 01/31/2024 |
mid-Year Update FY 2023-24The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. 01/30/2024 |
mid-Year Update FY 2022-23The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. 01/31/2023 |
mid-Year Update FY 2021-22The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in mid May. 01/31/2022 |
mid-Year Update FY 2019-20The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. The revised estimate is $35.738 billion, which is $220 million higher than the IFO’s official estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2020-21, revenues are projected to be $37.117 billion, an increase of 3.9 percent over the current year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May. 01/28/2020 |
mid-Year Update FY 2018-19The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. The revised estimate is $34.272 billion, which is $373 million higher than the IFO’s offical estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2019-20, revenues are projected to be $35.272 billion, an increase of 2.9 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May. 01/29/2019 |
mid-Year Update FY 2017-18The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/29/2018 |
mid-Year Update FY2016-17The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 billion, which is $250 million lower than the IFO’s November 2016 estimate and $450 million lower than the estimate published by the IFO at the beginning of the fiscal year. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2017-18, revenues are projected to be $32.637 billion, an increase of 1.8 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/25/2017 |
DotPlotData.xlsx392,730 $77,675 $19,804,383 1,526 $12,978 1,547 943 61% 538 1,526 35% 116555003 Midd-West SD 4215210 41-Rural: Fringe Rural $41,854,082 $10,219,354 $99,953 $1,215,757 $30,319 494,724 $13,842,256 817 $16,943 851 490 58% 354 817 43% 105254053 Girard SD 4210740 22-Suburb: Mid-size Suburban $27,366,353 $2,556,012 $212,119 $682,871 $23,915,351 1,634 $14,636 1 Hits: 40 |
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdfMid-Year Update MID-YEAR Revenue Update Commonwealth of Pennsylvania January 29, 2018 Mid-Year Update Three parts. Economic forecast: upward revisions due Hits: 29 |
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdfMatthew Knittel, Director IFO Mid-Year Update Fiscal Year 2023-24 January 30, 2024 Today’s Presentation Presentation runs ~30 minutes • Posted to IFO website attempt to address them at end If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible Slide 2 Mid-Year Update Economy somewhat stronger than assumed, but revenues running slightly under forecast PA Economic Forecast Update: June 2023 vs Hits: 19 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdfis released prior to the receipt of all revenues for the fiscal year that precedes the official estimate. • Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2016-17 was released on January 25, 2017. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and Hits: 17 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdfis adjusted for any statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release. Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2021-22 was released on January 31, 2022. The update is based on a revised economic Hits: 11 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdfis adjusted for any statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release. Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2020-21 was released on January 21, 2021. The update is based on a revised economic Hits: 11 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdffor any statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release. Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2019-20 was released on January 28, 2020. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and Hits: 10 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdffor any statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release. Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2018-19 was released on January 29, 2019. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and Hits: 8 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdfis released prior to the receipt of all revenues for the fiscal year that precedes the official estimate. • Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2017-18 was released on January 29, 2018. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and Hits: 8 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdfestimate is adjusted for any statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release. ▪ Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2022-23 was released on January 31, 2023. The update is based on a revised economic Hits: 7 |
index.cfmin General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $342.4 million (9.6%) compared to January 2023. ... (Full Report) Mid-Year Update FY 2023-24 Revenue Estimates January 30, 2024 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24 and provided an advance look at revenue projections Hits: 7 |
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdfTable 2 (next page) displays relevant economic growth rates for calendar year (CY) 2020 used by the IFO for its Mid-Year Update (January 2020) and the growth rates assumed for the two stylized scenarios. The income sources displayed in Table Retirement (pensions, IRA disbursements) and transfer (Social Security) income are not shown because the analysis IFO Gov. Budget Office Official Mid-Year Change Official Budget Change General Fund $35,518 $35,738 $220 $35,497 $35,697 $200 Corporate Net Income Hits: 6 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdfJune 15 to June 20. 2 IFO Reports and Analyses Published Reports and Analyses (since January 1, 2018) • Revenue Estimates Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18 (January 2018) Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget (April 2018) Initial Revenue Estimate Performance (July 2018) Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates (July 2018) Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2018) Mid-Year Update FY 2018-19 (January 2019) Monthly Trends Report • Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) PBB Plan: Department of Criminal Justice Hits: 6 |
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdfplace the risk of a mild recession at 15 to 20 percent. FY 2015‐16 General Fund Revenues For the mid‐year revenue update released in January, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) increased its General Fund revenue estimate for FY 2015‐ Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015‐16 to 2020‐21 (January 2016) Quarterly Revenue Review (January 2016) Mid‐Year Revenue Update (January 2016) All reports published by the office are available on its website at www.ifo.state Hits: 6 |
TC_2022_Brewers.pdfOverview | Page 9 Overall, the program data reveal three types of brewers that claim the tax credit: 6 ▪ Large and mid-size brewers that claim a credit each year and fully offset the maximum malt bev- erage tax liability. For those a discernable increase in annual production volume. 6 Brewer size as follows: Large (1 million or more barrels per annum), Mid-size (50,000 to 1 million), Small (5,000 to 50,000) and Very Small (under 5,000). Brewers’ Tax Hits: 5 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdfthe extent that staff resources are available for that purpose. 2 IFO Reports and Analyses for CY 2019 Revenue Estimates Mid-Year Update FY 2018-19 (January 2019) Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget (March 2019) Initial Adjustment) 4 -346 -119 -116 Executive Budget IFO $ Difference Notes: Millions of dollars. IFO estimate uses GF revenues from IFO mid-year update (January 2020), refunds and expenditures from the IFO Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2019) updated for subsequent ESNs Hits: 5 |
Budget Hearings Packet.pdfSchool District Property Tax Forecast (January 2017) • Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements (January 2017) • Quarterly Revenue Review (January 2017) • Mid-Year Update FY 2016-17 (January 2017) • PFBC Wage Contract Analysis (February 2017) • Pennsylvania Gaming Trends (February 2017) All reports 2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Source: U.S. EnergyInformation Administration, Mid-Atlantic price. $3.72 $2.28 $2.78 $1.84 $2.34 Gasoline 1,200 1,400 1,600 1 Hits: 5 |
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdfSchool District Property Tax Forecast (January 2017) • Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements (January 2017) • Quarterly Revenue Review (January 2017) • Mid-Year Update FY 2016-17 (January 2017) • PFBC Wage Contract Analysis (February 2017) • Pennsylvania Gaming Trends (February 2017) All reports 2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Source: U.S. EnergyInformation Administration, Mid-Atlantic price. $3.72 $2.28 $2.78 $1.84 $2.34 Gasoline 1,200 1,400 1,600 1 Hits: 5 |
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfFor New England states, New Hampshire (no credit) had a much lower level than other states. For Mid-Atlantic states, New Jersey (no credit) had a similar level to three states that offered relatively low levels of credits. For 55.6 325 6,826 47.7 Maine 2008 no cap 13.1 56 1,331 42.4 Mid Atlantic New Jersey n.a. n.a. n.a. 134 8,981 14.9 Pennsylvania 2013 3.0 3.0 251 12 Hits: 4 |
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Low 20% 2nd 20% Mid 20% 4th 20% Nxt 15% Next 4% Top 1% Personal Income Taxes — 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Low 20% 2nd 20% Mid 20% 4th 20% Nxt 15% Next 4% Top 1% Corporate Income Taxes — 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% Hits: 4 |
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdfPart Two compares the tax treatment of the aircraft industry in Pennsylvania to other states in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions. Part Three describes the industries included in this analysis and briefly discusses the status of the aircraft industry Turboprop 515 400 206,000 Twin Engine Turboprop 287 400 114,800 Light Jet 618 400 247,200 Mid-Size Jet 1,006 400 402,400 Large Jet 1,205 400 482,000 Maintenance costs include labor, parts, inspection, restores and Hits: 3 |
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf140 full-time equivalents (FTEs) ▪ Average Wage for Retained Jobs $52,000 Recommendations ▪ Incentivize the use of resident labor for mid-tier productions. ▪ Consider separate credit pools for film, television and small independent productions. ▪ Consider a temporary higher credit for television Economic Development (DCED) does not award more than $250,000 to any single project. This makes the credit ineffective for mid-size and large projects. ▪ Stakeholders noted that the application process is generally not burdensome. However, the awards process would benefit Hits: 3 |
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdfper ton of all materials processed in the facility, or up to $500,000 per year for a mid-sized MRF. These costs include sortation labor, downtime, parts retooling, parts replace- ment and material disposal costs where the film plastic is topic. Additionally, four of the states that enacted an EPS foam product ban are in the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic region and two other states in those regions (Connecticut and New Jersey) had EPS foam legislation passed out of at least Hits: 3 |
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdfand its contracted actuary. Revenue projections are from the IFO using data from S&P Global and the IFO’s mid-year update presented in January 2024. Other data sources are noted within this report. The office would like to thank FY 2024-25 to FY 2051-52. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2024-25 are from the IFO's Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2028-29 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Hits: 3 |
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdfPSERS and its contracted actuary. Revenue projections are from the IFO using data from IHS Markit and the IFO’s mid-year update presented in January 2023. Other data sources are noted within this report. The office would like to thank FY 2023-24 to FY 2050-51. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2023-24 are from the IFO's Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2027-28 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Hits: 3 |
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdfpurposes only. Our Primary Duties: • Annual Revenue Estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Economic and Budget Outlook: November 15. • Mid-Year Update: late January. Office Does Not Make Policy Recommendations. 12.Feb.2015 3 The Independent Fiscal Office and Budget Outlook. • Independent Fiscal Office: November 15. • Five-year projections, focus is on long-term trends. III. The Mid-Year Updates. • Administration (December) and Ind. Fiscal Office (January). IV. The Governor’s Executive Budget. • Early February (March this Hits: 3 |
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfand Allentown are also two of the larger population centers for this activity. In the bottom five, Carbon County and Mid County have the lowest hourly revenue collections and also have free senior ridership that comprises at least 30 percent of 15.1 100.7 17.7 IndiGO Indiana 406.3 6.8 11.9 80.8 17.7 Bottom 5 Mid County Kittaning 43.0 15.0 6.1 90.9 5.6 Washington County Washington 116.1 16.0 4 Hits: 3 |
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf0.4% 1.5% 2.1% PA Home Price Index 2.2% 3.1% 3.8% 3.6% n.a. Mid-Atlantic Gasoline -18.0% -15.1% -13.0% 6.1% 25.8% U.S. Domestic Profits -8.3% -7.7% 0.6% 2.0% PA Home Price Index -0.8% 1.0% 1.9% 2.9% 3.2% 3.8% Mid-Atlantic Gasoline 3.6% -3.4% -3.4% -29.2% -10.5% 23.0% U.S. Domestic Profits 15.0% Hits: 3 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdfof Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements (January 2017) Quarterly Revenue Review (January 2017, May 2017, August 2017, November 2017) Mid‐Year Update FY 2016‐17 (January 2017) PFBC Wage Contract Analysis (February 2017) Pennsylvania Gaming Trends (February 2017 2 School District Property Tax Forecast (January 2018) Increased Spending Allowed Under House Bill 110 (January 2018) Mid‐Year Update FY 2017‐18 (January 2018) State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States (February 2018) ALES Hits: 3 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdfthe package passed at the end of CY 2020. All residents who desire a vaccination can receive one by mid-summer. Schools, restaurants and other businesses resume normal operations by mid-summer. Many jobs lost to the pandemic do not return. Those jobs are concentrated in the food service, accommodation Hits: 3 |
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdfFY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2023 IFO Mid-Year Update Presentation should run 25 minutes ▪ Will be posted to IFO website at end ▪ Please use chat feature to in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for one-time/new transfers. January revenues are estimated. Mid-Year Update for FY 2022-23 January 31, 2023 14 IFO Official Estimate (June 2022) Mid-Year Update Amount Growth Hits: 3 |
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdfMid-Year Update FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2022 Today’s Presentation Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Corporate net personal income tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for due date shifts, one-time transfers and extra deposit day for withholding. Mid-Year Update for FY 2021-22 January 31, 2022 15 IFO Official Estimate Mid-Year Update Amount Growth Adjusted Amount Hits: 3 |
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdffull benefit to the tax credit flows to the production firm. Incentivize the use of resident labor for mid-tier productions. A big drawback of the FPTC, especially for large budget feature films that employ highly paid actors, is that much tax credit), it is questionable whether Pennsylvania should compete for such productions. Instead, the state could compete for mid-tier productions where a larger share of the cost structure is comprised of resident labor. To encourage that outcome, the base credit Hits: 2 |
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdfper project. January 24, 2019 4 Findings and Recommendations - HPTC Main findings for HPTC: Incentivizes small projects but not mid-size and large. Across all projects, offsets ~1% of total costs. Large positive spillover effects: economic, social, environmental credit ($1,000). January 24, 2019 7 Background - Film Production 32 states incentivize film-television productions. PA offers a “mid-range” credit at $65 million. GA ($533m), NY ($420m) and CA ($330m) dominate industry. Base credit rates range Hits: 2 |
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx250k per project. January 24, 2019 4 Findings and Recommendations - HPTC Main findings for HPTC: ▪ Incentivizes small projects but not mid-size and large. ▪ Across all projects, offsets ~1% of total costs. ▪ Large positive spillover effects: economic, social, environmental. Recommendations for regular credit ($1,000). January 24, 2019 7 Background - Film Production 32 states incentivize film-television productions. ▪ PA offers a “mid-range” credit at $65 million. ▪ GA ($533m), NY ($420m) and CA ($330m) dominate industry. ▪ Base credit rates range from 20% Hits: 2 |
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdfper project. January 24, 2019 4 Findings and Recommendations - HPTC Main findings for HPTC: Incentivizes small projects but not mid-size and large. Across all projects, offsets ~1% of total costs. Large positive spillover effects: economic, social, environmental credit ($1,000). January 24, 2019 7 Background - Film Production 32 states incentivize film-television productions. PA offers a “mid-range” credit at $65 million. GA ($533m), NY ($420m) and CA ($330m) dominate industry. Base credit rates range Hits: 2 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdfa recent peak in 2018 Q4, providing relief to homebuyers and homeowners who want to refinance. The mid-Atlantic gasoline price reflects market conditions in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York. Recent data show an uptick in gasoline prices and 5.2% 10-Year Note Yield 2.76 2.92 2.93 3.03 2.65 2.38 Mid-Atlantic Gasoline $2.70 $2.90 $2.91 $2.42 $2.68 $2.88 PA Home Price Index 6.2% 5.4% Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf000 Mercer Area 406,190 -309,000 Methacton 2,051,094 -1,558,000 Meyersdale Area 210,650 -160,000 Mid Valley 261,979 -199,000 Middletown Area 923,620 -702,000 Midd-West 792,982 -602,000 Midland Borough 88,669 -67,000 Mifflin County 1,920,849 -1,459,000 Mifflinburg Hits: 2 |
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdfU -0.1% 0.6% 1.3% 1.8% 2.2% Home Price Index 2.5% 4.0% 4.6% -- -- Mid-Atlantic Gasoline -29.2% -10.5% 14.8% 8.7% -- Note: Job gains exclude self-employed individuals. Growth rate for 1% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% Home Price Index 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% -- Mid-Atlantic Gasoline 25.8% 8.5% 14.2% 12.4% 10.0% Note: All growth rates are year-over-year Hits: 2 |
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdfMid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2018-19 Preliminary Forecast FY 2019-20 January 29, 2019 a. n.a. All Other -17.0% -12.1% Update for FY 2018-19 January 29, 2019 8 IFO Official Mid-Year Update Estimate Amount $ Change Growth General Fund $33,899 $34,272 $373 -0.9% Corporate Net Income 3,075 Hits: 2 |
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdfNortheast Extension: The Northeast Extension is part of the Ticket System and includes only I-476. It runs from the Mid-County Interchange through the Wyoming Valley Interchange, but ends with two barrier interchanges – Keyser Avenue and Clark’s Summit. For Smith. 12 The 4.5 percent annual toll increase is referred to as the baseline scenario because it represents the mid-point of that range. Toll rate increases apply to all users and are effective on January 1st of each year Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdfa recent peak in 2018 Q4, providing relief to homebuyers and homeowners who want to refinance. The mid-Atlantic gasoline price reflects market conditions in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York. Recent data show an uptick in gasoline prices and 8.7% 10-Year Note Yield 2.76 2.92 2.93 3.03 2.65 2.03 Mid-Atlantic Gasoline $2.70 $2.90 $2.91 $2.42 $2.68 $2.74 PA Home Price Index 5.9% 5.4% Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdfforward most cost increases to final consumers. Rows 7 and 8 show the YOY growth in the price of gasoline (Mid-Atlantic) and natural gas at the Henry Hub, which has been notably robust the past year. Rows 9 and 10 7% 6 US Corp Dom Profits ($ billions) Q3 $1,356 $1,514 $1,889 11.7% 24.7% 7 Gasoline (Mid-Atlantic) Oct $2.60 $2.28 $3.36 -12.3% 47.4% 8 Natural Gas (Henry Hub) Oct $2.24 Hits: 2 |
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdfEconomic and Budget Outlook 2017 Revenue Conference FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania IFO Mid-Year Update January 25, 2017 Presentation has three parts. Economic update. Unexpected broad weakness. Revenue update for FY business spending and consumers. No public presentation. But will be posted to IFO website. 25.Jan.2017 2 IFO Mid-Year Update 25.Jan.2017 3 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP Jun 2016 1 Hits: 2 |
MidYear_PublicBriefing_Jan2018.pdfPM Location: Room 105, Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market St, Harrisburg The Independent Fiscal Office will release a mid-year update for General Fund revenues for FY 2017-18. The presentation will also include a discussion of the impact federal tax law changes on the state economy and tax revenues and a preliminary revenue outlook for FY 2018-19. Mid-Year Revenue Update www.ifo.state.pa.us IFO PUBLIC BRIEFING CreationDate: 2018-01-17 19:36:46 Creator: Canva Hits: 2 |
mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdfJanuary 25, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2016-17 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is million lower than the estimate published by the IFO at the beginning of the fiscal year. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2017- Hits: 2 |
mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdfJanuary 28, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2014-15 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15. The revised estimate is 5.2.2 ModDate: 2015-01-28 16:56:57 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.9 (Windows) Title: Microsoft Word - mid-year-FY14-15-press-release Hits: 2 |
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdfMid‐Year Update Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 2015 Revenue Conference Economic Outlook for 2015 and 2016. • Forecasts: June 2014 28.Jan.2015 8 Monthly Average Gas Price Jan 2009 demand collapses Jan 2015 excess supply weak global demand EIA Mid‐Atlantic Price June 2014 June 2008 Oct 2014 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 28 Hits: 2 |
jackson ppt.pdfas in most-affected states. • PA got caught in overall problem. • Decrease in payroll employment started later than in PA (mid-2008) than in states in middle of housing crisis (mid-2007). • PA will also return to pre-recession peak employment earlier than US average • PA – 2013Q2 vs. US – 2014Q3 • Marcellus Hits: 2 |
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdfour current thinking about the revenue outlook and the economy. FY 2013-14 Revenue Outlook The IFO recently published a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for the current fiscal year and concluded that a $150 million reduction to the recent Executive Budget did not change the certified number.) The IFO’s reduction was based on two factors: • At the mid-point in the fiscal year, growth rates for the General Fund and its key revenue sources were below the IFO Hits: 2 |
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf15 each year. • Quarterly Revenue Review. Published after each quarter to compare the IFO’s revenue estimates to actual revenues. • Mid-Year Update. Published in January. Revised revenue estimate for the current year based on actual collections for the first half Sales and Use 2.3% 5.5% Personal Income 2.7% 3.3% FY 2013-14 IFO Official Revenue Estimate – Mid-Year Update ($ millions) Revenue Source Estimate Revision Revised Estimate Revised Fiscal Year Growth Revised 2 nd Half Growth General Fund Hits: 2 |
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdfMid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2019-20 Preliminary Forecast FY 2020-21 January 28, 2020 74m withholding transfer this year and $25m last year. Update for FY 2019-20 January 28, 2020 8 IFO Official Mid-Year Update Estimate Amount $ Change Growth Adjust General Fund $35,518 $35,738 $220 2.5% 3.1% Corporate Net Hits: 2 |
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdfmitment decisions earlier in the calendar year. Stakeholders expressed frustration that decisions on NAP Tax Credit applications sometimes arrive in mid- December or later, making it difficult for potential donors to participate in the program and still take ad- vantage of Hits: 1 |
Supplemental_Table.pdfRevenue Estimate Comparison Detail IFO Mid-Year Executive Budget IFO less Exec Budget 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 Total Hits: 1 |
SR2014-03-presentation.pdfbudgetary issues. Primary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January. Office does not make policy recommendations. 16.Dec.2014 2 Independent Fiscal Office Scope Hits: 1 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdfassume an annual transfer of $115 million from cigarette taxes. The balance sheet utilizes revenue estimates from the IFO's Mid-Year Update (FY 23-24 and FY 24-25) and out-year growth rates from the IFO's Five-Year Hits: 1 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdfprojections in the updated General Fund financial statement (next page) utilize projections published in the IFO’s FY 2021-22 Mid-Year Update. Those projections are adjusted by the IFO’s preliminary estimates for the revenue modifications proposed in the Executive Hits: 1 |
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdfMatthew Knittel, Director Budget Roundtable Fiscal Year 2023-24 January 31, 2024 Overview and Notes Mid-Year Update presented Jan 30 • Revenue and economic update • A few demographic, revenue and economic slides added to provide context Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdfdid not include the ARP and 2 nd round of PPP ▪ Injects ~$25 billion into state economy immediately (tax free) Mid-sized and large businesses fare much better than expected ▪ Cost cutting measures | streamline operations ▪ Telework and travel savings | sales of Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdfBy statute, the office issues an initial revenue estimate at the beginning of May and an updated revenue estimate by mid- June. FY 2014-15 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to be $30.55 billion, $594 million above the estimate Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdfLottery sales will receive a similar boost in June and July, until the federal payments are discontinued in mid-to-late July. Table 2.6 displays historical sales by category of Lottery game from FY 2015-16 to FY 2018-19 Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdfOverall, revenues are holding up better than expected Is economy in a temporary bubble? Extra $600/week ends in mid- to late-July | windfall for some workers PPP loans/grants buys limited time for businesses One-time purchases Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf4 64.1 60.4 50.8 Philadelphia CPI-U 0.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% Mid-Atlantic Gasoline 13.7% 22.8% 7.7% -5.3% -0.8% Home Price Index 6.2% 5.4% 4 Hits: 1 |
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf5.2.2 ModDate: 2013-01-23 16:04:52 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.5 (Windows) Title: Microsoft PowerPoint - Mid-Year Briefing Jan 2013 FINAL Hits: 1 |
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdfa business and passed through to shareholders, workers or consumers (e.g., corporate net income, insurance premiums and bank shares), mid-sized or smaller tax types (e.g., realty transfer) and taxes not based on income or consumption (e.g., inheritance Hits: 1 |
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdfa business and passed through to shareholders, workers or consumers (e.g., corporate net income, insurance premiums and financial institutions), mid-sized or smaller tax types (e.g., realty transfer) and taxes not based on income or consumption (e.g., inheritance Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdfin Table 2. The IFO will update these projections as part of its Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook in mid-November. Table 3 uses data compiled by the Pew Charitable Trusts for its annual 50-state pension funding brief. 2 Hits: 1 |
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdfit will have material implications for General Fund revenues. The IFO will revisit that assumption with the release of its Mid- Year Update in January. At that time, it will be more clear whether Congress and state lawmakers have enacted or Hits: 1 |
RB_09_2023_Treasury.pdf1.4 billion by June 2024, and most economic forecasts project that interest rates will begin to fall gradually in mid-to-late 2024. If both projections hold, then Treasury collections for this fiscal year could reach $650 million. Through September Hits: 1 |
RB-2016-02.pdfGuarantee Program $0 $0 Provides guarantees to venture capital partnerships for investments in Pennsylvania‐related companies in the early to mid‐stage of development. New Pennsylvania Venture Capital Investment Program $120 $3,959 Provides loans to venture capital partnerships for invest‐ Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdfthe Fed “taper”? o In June, Fed says taper would start soon and end when unemployment rate at roughly 7% (mid-2014). o But unemployment rate is falling for wrong reasons. 24 . Sept . 2013 6 Federal Reserve Current Policy: QE3. o Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdfShort and Long-Term Challenges for PA Budget. • Short-Term: ~ $1.5 billion of shifts/savings in FY 14-15. • Mid-Term: strong pension growth and policy changes. • Long-Term: moderate economic growth, aging populace and eroding tax base. A Return Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdfSettlement +$40 26 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. March 8, 2018 Revenue Estimate Comparison IFO –Mid Year Executive Budget IFO less E.B. 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 Total Hits: 1 |
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdfpartially) addressed the short-term deficit, but the long-term imbalance remains. Long-Term Outlook Summary 10.Feb.2017 13 Mid-Year Revenue Update 14 10.Feb.2017 Revised revenue projections for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 Revenues Through Hits: 1 |
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf0% 7.5% Gasoline Prices 3.6% ‐3.4% ‐3.4% ‐29.2% n.a. Average annual rates. Gasoline is mid‐Atlantic price. Values are forecasts for entire year. May 13, 2016 4 Projected 2016 Growth Solid May 13, 2016 5 Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdfrelative to IFO official estimate released in June 2018. Update for FY 2018-19 March 1, 2019 12 IFO Official Mid-Year Update Estimate Amount $ Change Growth General Fund $33,899 $34,272 $373 -0.9% Corporate Net Income 3,075 Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdfU 0.7% 1.6% 2.2% n.a. House Price Index 2.5% 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% Mid-Atlantic Gasoline -29.2% -10.5% 14.8% 15.0% All Consumer Debt 2.2% 4.2% 2.0% 2 Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdfthere are 15% more owner-occupied properties than there are homesteads. Analysis uses a 7.5% increase in homesteads (mid-point). Assumes that newly approved homesteads have the same characteristics as currently-approved homesteads. June.05.2018 Woodwork Effect Hits: 1 |
PICPA_Presentation.pdf1.5% 2.1% 1.1% PA Home Price Index 3.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% n.a. Mid-Atlantic Gasoline -15.1% -13.0% 6.1% 25.8% 9.4% U.S. Domestic Profits -7.7% 0.3% Hits: 1 |
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf4 64.1 60.4 50.8 Philadelphia CPI-U 0.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% Mid-Atlantic Gasoline 13.7% 22.8% 7.7% -5.3% -0.8% Home Price Index 5.9% 5.4% 4 Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdfhigh-return on investment, make them a strong investment for the Commonwealth. Benefit/Cost Ratio PROGRAM NAME LOW MID HIGH Aggression Replacement Training (Youth on Probation) $1.47 $2.45 $7.31 Big Brothers Big Sisters (Community-Based Model) ($0.08 Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdfand other community-based models. The pattern follows an overall downward trend in crime rates nationally since the mid-to-late 1990’s. County Placements as a Percent of Juvenile Dispositions At the county level, the JCJC tracks placements of juveniles Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdfResource Management 2 Listed data are a comparison of DGS to the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) Mid-Atlantic region. 3 Value for FY 2018-19 is based on a list of maintenance projects DGS provided the IFO. Any projects Hits: 1 |
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdfIFO Mar to Jul general research, design data template, contact other states (NM, WA, MN), update to PBB Board staff Mid August first meeting with each agency, transmit data template Sept to Nov multiple follow up meetings, meet with legislative staff Hits: 1 |
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptxoffer some type of R&D incentive ▪ 3 states dominate: CA ($1,800m), TX ($660m), MA ($242m) ▪ PA offers a mid-tier dollar credit ($55m) | typical credit rates ▪ All states use federal definitions for QRE ▪ Nearly all use a form of Hits: 1 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdfLottery sales will receive a similar boost in June and July, until the federal payments are discontinued in mid-to-late July. Table 2.6 displays historical sales by category of Lottery game from FY 2015-16 to FY 2018-19 Hits: 1 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdfOverall, revenues are holding up better than expected Is economy in a temporary bubble? Extra $600/week ends in mid- to late-July | windfall for some workers PPP loans/grants buys limited time for businesses One-time purchases Hits: 1 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdfbillion, for an updated FY 2017-18 official estimate of $34.7 billion. Based on revenue collections through mid-June and projections for the remainder of the fiscal year, this revised estimate reduces revenues by $226 million from the IFO’s Hits: 1 |
NGPR_2021_Q3.pdfover the last 21 quarters. The figure shows the precipitous decline in national and regional prices from late 2018 to mid-2020. Since then, both prices have increased to their highest levels in several years due to strong demand and limited Hits: 1 |
NGPR_2021_Q2.pdfthe last 21 quarters. The figure shows the precipitous decline in both national and regional prices from late 2018 to mid-2020. Since then, both prices have increased to their highest levels in several years due to strong demand and limited Hits: 1 |
NGPR-2021-Q1.pdfthe last 21 quarters. The figure shows the precipitous decline in both national and regional prices from late 2018 to mid-2020. Since then, both prices increased due to strong energy demand during the winter months, and the Texas freeze in Hits: 1 |
NFIB_Presentation.pdfpurpose: identify long-term structural issues. ◦ Has morphed into early deficit estimate for this/next fiscal year. End of January: Mid-Year Revenue Update. ◦ Updated projections for the current year. Preview of next year. Early April: analysis of proposals in Executive Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-08.pdfwith higher rates include West Virginia (36.0), Ohio (24.7), Maryland (17.7) and Delaware (14.8). Across the Mid-Atlantic region, all states with the exception of New Jersey (9.8) and Virginia (9.9) recorded a higher death Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-10.pdfranged from 2% to 4% (3.3% average), well below the wage growth from the last expansion period in the mid-2000s (4.7% average). (See red line in graph.) When discussing the growth of total wages paid to all employees Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-03.pdfgross earnings, 1.6% growth), wholesale- retail (10.4%, 1.8% growth) and manufacturing (10.0%, 1.0% growth). Some mid-sized sectors recorded stronger earnings gains (e.g., construction and professional services) due to above- average employment expansions. For General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2023_10.pdfmillion were $50.6 million (+42.0%) higher than projected. This was primarily due to a single large deposit day mid-month. ▪ Treasury collections of $59.6 million outperformed expectations by $23.7 million (+66.0%). ▪ Escheats collections fell short of Hits: 1 |
MRU-2020-09.pdfa partial-year budget, the IFO will delay the release of its regular five-year economic and budget outlook in mid-November. In its place, the office will release an updated economic and revenue forecast for FY 2020-21 at the Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdfthe Federal Housing Finance Agency show that the home price index increased by 12.5% in 2021 Q1 for the Mid- Atlantic region, compared to 1.1% for the Shelter portion of the Philadelphia CPI-U. Therefore, the All Items Less Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdfpeak in June 2020, 4.3 million U.S. homeowners (8.6% of loans) entered into mortgage forbearance plans. By mid-November, nearly 40% of participants had exited these plans and total participants fell to 2.7 million homeowners (5.5% Hits: 1 |
MER-2015-01.pdfgov/petroleum/gas Avg. Gas Price Consumer Sentiment 2 http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/resources/PDF /mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf Author: Lauren Mondschein CreationDate: 2015-02-04 19:56:59 ModDate: 2015-02-04 19 Hits: 1 |
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdfBy statute, the office issues an initial revenue estimate at the beginning of May and an updated revenue estimate by mid- June. FY 2016-17 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to be $31.82 billion, $695 million below the estimate Hits: 1 |
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdfmillion), then the overage is roughly $40 million, and it is largely attributable to inheritance tax ($30 million). At our mid-year revenue update (January 2018), we added $35 million to our official revenue estimate originally released June 2017. For this Hits: 1 |
IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdfGeneral Fund Revenue Estimate FY 2013-14 Mid-Year Update Independent Fiscal Office January 23, 2014 At the beginning of the fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Hits: 1 |
IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdfanticipated year of implementation. For personal income tax (PIT), the IFO assumes an effective date of January 1, because a mid-year PIT increase would be difficult to implement, particularly for the new tax on retirement income (and associated new exemption Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdfA history of allowance prices is displayed in the figure below. The figure shows that the allowance price peaked in mid-2022, likely due to high energy inflation and coal generation becoming more cost competitive. In the latest model published by Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdffrom the FY 2024-25 Governor's Executive Budget. The IFO balance sheet utilizes revenue estimates from the IFO's Mid-Year Update and growth rates from the Five-Year Outlook (Nov 2023). Expenditures for current year and budget year are Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdfSchool District Property Tax Forecast (January 2017) • Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements (January 2017) • Quarterly Revenue Review (January 2017) • Mid-Year Update FY 2016-17 (January 2017) • PFBC Wage Contract Analysis (February 2017) • Pennsylvania Gaming Trends (February 2017) • Department of Hits: 1 |
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf2012 GPNP Conference $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 $3.36 Source: Energy Information Administration. Mid-Atlantic Average Price, Gallon Unleaded OPEC output at highest level since 2008 - WSJ, May 10 - 10.Jul.2012 20 2012 Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdfcurrent decade, 13 states reside in the lowest-growth group. That group includes most New England and most Mid-Atlantic states. Total Population Organic Growth (Births - Deaths) Net Migration (Incoming - Outgoing) Delaware 0.93% 0.30% 0.65% Maryland 0.57 Hits: 1 |
EPLC_April_2024.pdfBudget Process Source: Governor’s Executive Budget 2024-25, page 4. • Nov 15: 5-Year Economic & Budget Outlook • Jan 31: Mid-Year Revenue Update • Mar/Apr: Analysis of Executive Budget Revenue Proposals • May 20: Preliminary Revenue Estimate • June 20: Final Revenue Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdftourism Acceleration of on-line purchases Key dates to watch August 21: July jobs report for Pennsylvania Mid-September: 3 rd PIT estimated payment (first two down ~9% YOY) August 19, 2020 5 IFO and Administration Forecast for Hits: 1 |
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdfremediation and other factors. Provide your best dollar estimate of the additional costs for a new student who enrolls mid- year (e.g., $300 per new student). If possible, provide your best estimate for the share of new students that enroll Hits: 1 |
Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdfm. Location: 14 th Floor Conference Center, Harrisburg University, 326 Market Street, Harrisburg The new revenue estimates include: (1) a mid-year revision to the IFO’s fiscal year (FY) 2015-16 forecast, and (2) an advance estimate for FY 2016- Hits: 1 |
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdfInstitute of Technology (MIT). I have been the Executive Director of the Keystone Research Center since its creation in the mid‐1990s. KRC is an independent, non‐partisan economic research and policy organization or “think tank.” A core focus of KRC Hits: 1 |
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdfAct. Since that time, Pennsylvania has overtaken New Jersey in gross casino revenue and leads all other states in the Mid- Atlantic region. In 2012, Pennsylvania casinos generated $3,158 million in revenue compared to New Jersey ($3,051 million), New Hits: 1 |
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdfentertainment) which comprise roughly 15-20 percent of an average employ- ee’s expenditures. 2 Anecdotal news stories suggest that mid-tier retailers and restaurants are most likely to expe- rience decreasing sales as consumers adjust to the re- duction in Hits: 1 |
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdfeconomy. These issues include sequestration (early March), the expiring continuing resolution (late March) and extension of the statutory debt limit (mid-May or later). Upside Risks • A timely resolution to the ongoing debates over federal fiscal policy could spur consumer confidence Hits: 1 |
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf500. The Domini Social Index includes 400 U.S. companies that pass mul- tiple and broad-based social screens, and the Calvert Social Index is a broad-based index including 659 companies. The majority of these studies show that socially screened Hits: 1 |
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdfand Welfare funds established through various collective bargaining agreements with the individual unions. In the mid-1980’s, healthcare inflation averaged in the double digits. During that era, benefits became a major concern in public employee collective bargaining, and nationally there Hits: 1 |
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdfof the active members. Since it is not possible to accumulate the required financing before retirement in the case of mid-career benefit changes or ad hoc postretirement adjustments, actuarial funding provides for the total required financing for these changes to Hits: 1 |