Economic and Revenue Impact of Student Loan MoratoriumDirector Knittel gave a presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on the economic and revenue impact of the student loan moratorium. Tags: loan, presentation, student |
Student Loan Repayment Moratorium EndsAs part of its annual revenue estimate, the IFO modeled the economic and revenue impact from the scheduled end of the student loan moratorium in September 2023. An IMPLAN economic simulation finds that annual state nominal GDP will decline by $3.4 billion while sales tax revenues decline by $125 million and personal income tax by $40 million. Tags: brief, loan, research, student |
Student Loan Debt ForgivenessThe IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program. Tags: brief, debt, loan, student |
Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates. Tags: brief, loans, research, student |
Senate Budget Hearing RequestThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to requests for additional information raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The requests relate to an adjusted financial statement, public assistance savings resulting from a higher minimum wage, impact of the Ohio rate structure on Pennsylvania tax liability, net migration for Pennsylvania, regional student loan debt comparison and U3 and U6 unemployment rates. 03/06/2024 |
Economic and Revenue Impact of student Loan MoratoriumDirector Knittel gave a presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on the economic and revenue impact of the student loan moratorium. 10/03/2023 |
student Loan Repayment Moratorium EndsAs part of its annual revenue estimate, the IFO modeled the economic and revenue impact from the scheduled end of the student loan moratorium in September 2023. An IMPLAN economic simulation finds that annual state nominal GDP will decline by $3.4 billion while sales tax revenues decline by $125 million and personal income tax by $40 million. 06/12/2023 |
student Loan Debt ForgivenessThe IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program. 08/31/2022 |
Is the student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates. 03/08/2022 |
Senate Majority Policy Committee Public Workshop Migration Data RequestIn response to a legislative request, the IFO provided data to the Senate Majority Policy Committee for use in their Public Workshop on “student Flight (Brain Drain) from Pennsylvania” on April 30, 2019. The brief document details historical population data for the Commonwealth, focusing primarily on young adults migrating to and from Pennsylvania. 04/29/2019 |
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdfProfessional Development ............................................................... 49 Activity 7: Curriculum and Assessments .............................................................................................. 53 Activity 8: Public Libraries and the State Library .................................................................................. 55 Activity 9: Student Support Services ................................................................................................... 57 Activity 10: Administration ................................................................................................................. 61 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 63 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ....................................................... 63 Agency Response improving opportunities throughout the Commonwealth by ensuring that technical support, resources, and optimal learning envi- ronments are available for all students, whether children or adults. Services Provided For this report, the services provided by the department are classified into ten general Hits: 326 |
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdfcharter school surveys (44%). Because large districts and charters submitted surveys, response rates weighted by the share of the student population surveyed are higher: 93% for school districts and 72% for charters. For the 2015 survey, the comparable weighted response rates for 499 school districts across the four SPP groups based on four metrics: (1) share of economically disadvantaged (ED) students, (2) share of English learners (ELs), (3) taxable income per average daily membership (ADM) and (4) regular instruction costs per ADM Hits: 188 |
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdfpre-kindergarten (pre-K) scholarship organizations or educational improvement organizations. The organizations utilize contributions to award private school scholarships to students in pre-K through grade 12 and to fund innovative educa- tional programs in public, charter or private schools. The million allocated to scholarship organizations and for innovative education programs and $55 million reserved for private school scholarship programs benefiting students that reside in low-achieving public- school districts. The tax credit is equal to 75% to 100% of qualified contributions Hits: 158 |
DotPlotData.xlsxby PDE to IFO on November 23, 2021. Includes all PSSA, Keystone and PASA completed exams by full-academic-year students. F. PDE Website, AFR Data: Detailed, Revenues, Local Revenue:2010-11 to 2019-20. https://www.education.pa.gov/Teachers%20- divided into urban, suburban, rural and town is from a data file from source "A" listed above. The current expenditures/student were calculated in the following way: 1. Current expenditures equal total school district (SD) expenditures minus facilities acquisition, construction and Hits: 42 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdfexpenditure trends. Demographic trends determine key populations such as the labor force that affects economic growth, ele- mentary and secondary students who require educational services and older residents who may require long-term care. All population projections and certain descriptive text historical averages for non-recession years. ▪ Sales and use tax (SUT) growth for FY 2023-24 decelerates, as inflation moderates, student loan repayments restart and most pandemic-related federal assistance is depleted or has expired. Motor vehicle SUT collections are further Hits: 38 |
BEFC_Response_Letter_12_19_23.pdfAll SDs Charter Schools 1 Calculated using the midpoint of the ED multiplier range. 2 Calculated using number of ED students as the weight and the midpoint of the ED multiplier range. -0.20 0.03 -0.11 0.00 -0 question 1(a). 2 Calculated using the midpoint of the alternate ED multiplier range. 3 Calculated using number of ED students as the weight. -0.20 -0.01 -0.03 0.00 0.09 -0.07 0.10 0.02 0 Hits: 22 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdftrends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this section are by declining college enrollment also impacts state demo- graphic trends. Pennsylvania typically receives a large influx of non-resident students who attend college. The temporary students are counted as residents for the purpose of the Census. While most return to their home Hits: 19 |
FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdf3 FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2023 Good Afternoon I Student Loan Repayment Moratorium: background and big picture II Looking Back: 2020-2023 ▪ Did any borrowers continue to pay? | who was uncertainty ▪ Economic and revenue impact (IMPLAN) Disclaimer: not an endorsement/critique of any modeling software! October 3, 2023 1 I. Student Loan Repayment Moratorium March 2020 moratorium (no payments, no interest accrues) ▪ Most federally-held student loans | no private loans ▪ Extended Hits: 15 |
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdfinto law. The act suspends the U.S. debt ceiling limit through January 1, 2025. It also formally ends the student loan repayment moratorium and payments are scheduled to resume in September. The moratorium began in March 2020 and will have been effective for three and one-half years. This research brief uses the latest student loan data and the IMPLAN economic model to quantify the state economic and General Fund revenue impact from the resumption Hits: 14 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdfat this time. The table on page 6 of this response contains statistics on the migration of first-time undergraduate students to and from each state for 2010 and 2018 (latest year available, thousands of students). The first column displays the total number of students that enrolled at post-secondary institutions by the institution’s state Hits: 13 |
RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdfOn August 24, 2022, the Biden administration announced plans to forgive a portion of outstanding federal student loans and to enact various changes to the program. The main provisions are as follows: • Borrowers earning less than $125 for up to $20,000 of debt relief. The forgiven debt would not be subject to federal income tax. • The student loan forbearance is extended through December 2022. It is the seventh extension (two under the prior administration), and the administration Hits: 12 |
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf800 in 2014. Relative to income, consumer debt levels have declined dramatically during the past decade. Moreover, growth in student loan debt shows recent signs of slowing. A solid housing market. Data suggest that existing home sales increased by recorded solid job gains (+54,800) and very low inflation. 2 Relative to income, consumer debt levels continue to fall. Student debt increases, but at a slower rate. 3‐4 On average, all goods decline in price, while services, notably healthcare Hits: 11 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdfLicense Fund, (5) $279 million annually for the Governor’s proposal to increase higher education financial aid for low-income students (i.e., Student & Family Affordability) and (6) a cumulative deficit computation. In the adjusted financial statement (next page), the main Expenditures line represents Hits: 10 |
PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdfInclude citations for PDE data from specific public files or reports 2. Correct the calculations for school district expenditures per student by subtracting charter school tuition payments and charter school average daily membership, and include a note explaining the costs unique statewide math and reading scores in the 2019 National Assessment of Educational Progress for grades 4 and 8 by the student groups for race/ethnicity and National School Lunch Program eligibility 4. In the state benchmarks section of the K-12 Hits: 10 |
index.cfmfrom a higher minimum wage, impact of the Ohio rate structure on Pennsylvania tax liability, net migration for Pennsylvania, regional student loan debt comparison and U3 and U6 unemployment rates. ... (Full Report) February 2024 Revenue Update Revenue & Economic Update March 01 credit reviews published during the first five-year evaluation cycle (2019 to 2023). ... (Full Report) Economic and Revenue Impact of Student Loan Moratorium Economics and Other October 03, 2023 Director Knittel gave a presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Hits: 10 |
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdfthe forecast could deteriorate rapidly due to high interest rates, an expected contraction of credit and lending, the resumption of student loan repayments and the end of funds still flowing from certain stimulus programs (e.g., employee retention credit). U.S overperformance is due to the infusion of federal stimulus monies, a shift from purchases of services to goods and the student loan repayment moratorium, which has en- tered its fourth year. Withholding tax revenues expanded at a rate (21%) similar Hits: 9 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf1 PDE Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020-21) March 9, 2022 2 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share Student Support Services 120 25.8% $1,577 9.1% Administration 82 17.6% 46 0.3% Special Education 56 12 PDE General Fund Appropriations (FY 2021-22) March 9, 2022 3 Appropriations K-12 Special Education Post. and Higher Education Student Supp. Servs. Child Dev. and Early Learning Other Total Basic Education Funding $7,067 -- -- -- -- -- $7,067 School Employees' Ret. 2 Hits: 9 |
MTR-2017-03.pdfpublishes quarterly state data on consumer debt. The data span major loan types, such as mortgage, auto, credit card and student loan, and provide insight as to whether consumers are accumulating or paying down debt. For Pennsylvania and most nearby states January 2017 data suggest that consumers either paused on making new purchases or paid down existing debt. 1 Auto and student loans have been the fastest growing loan types over the past six years for Pennsylvania and nearby states. The rise Hits: 9 |
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdfdata on zone investment or projected economic impact are not yet available. Senator Collett asked about states that have implemented student loan debt forgiveness programs and how much those programs might positively impact demographic trends. Two states currently offer loan forgiveness loan forgiveness programs targeted at keeping recent graduates in the state. The New York program offers 24 months of federal student loan debt relief to recent New York State college graduates. Program applicants must be a legal resident and have been Hits: 8 |
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdfbeen reclaimed. Changes Enacted None. Page 17 Educational Report Cycle 2022 Purpose Enhance the educational opportunities available to all Pennsylvania students. Findings ▪ Article XX-B of the Public School Code expressly limits the data that may be collected related to the four. This level is higher than all other states that have an income limitation. ▪ Modest state savings are realized from students switching from public to private school ($350/student on average) due to strong hold harmless provisions. ▪ Compared to other states Hits: 7 |
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdfthe forecast could deteriorate rapidly due to high interest rates, an expected contraction of credit and lending, the resumption of student loan repayments, a potential debt ceiling impasse and the end of funds still flowing from certain stimulus programs (e.g overperformance is due to the infusion of federal stimulus monies, a shift from purchases of services to goods and the student loan repayment moratorium, which has entered its fourth year. Withholding tax revenues expanded by 21.2%, similar to wages Hits: 7 |
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdfSource: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau. Demographics data from U.S. Census and IFO projections (2021). Is the Student Loan Moratorium Affecting Employment? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 While many factors motivate policy that may have contributed to the significant decline in employment-population ratios for the two age cohorts is the student loan moratorium, which now enters its third year. Under the moratorium, loan repayments are suspended, and interest does not accrue Hits: 7 |
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdfa 20 percent down payment. However, the housing market’s recovery is still fragile. Relatively high unemployment rates and high student loan debt may be hindering potential first-time home- buyers from entering the market (see graph). This af- fects the pa.us Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2 The Project on Student Debt, an initiative of the Insti- tute for College Access and Success, finds that 70 per- cent of graduates from Hits: 7 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdfthe expense of the ability of new workers to enter the market (e.g., high school and college students). Finally, the paper finds an eight percent reduction in labor turnover rates for all employees, regardless of experience, due to the higher Conversely, opponents note that minimum wages are intended to be “starter” wages for inexperienced high school and college students who work limited hours. Over time, those indi- viduals will receive higher wages commensurate with their education and experience. Opponents believe that Hits: 6 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf1 PDE Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020-21) January 26, 2022 2 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share Student Support Services 120 25.8% $1,577 9.1% Administration 82 17.6% 46 0.3% Special Education 56 12 PDE General Fund Appropriations (FY 2021-22) January 26, 2022 3 Appropriations K-12 Special Education Post. and Higher Education Student Supp. Servs. Child Dev. and Early Learning Other Total Basic Education Funding $7,067 -- -- -- -- -- $7,067 School Employees' Ret. 2 Hits: 6 |
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdfbalance that is used each year to offset the shortfall in fee revenues. Average training costs per student. The change in training costs associated with changes in the service model. Cumulative amount owed to counties for sheriff training cost thousands): Annual operating deficit -$5,514 -$1,770 -$2,705 -$2,422 -$812 -$654 Avg. training cost per student $4.4 $4.8 $5.2 $5.5 $3.8 $3.4 Cumulative amount owed to counties for sheriff training n.a Hits: 6 |
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdfimpact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget and (2) the extension of the moratorium on federal student loan repayments and the forgiveness of up to $20,000 in federal student loan debt announced on August 24, 2022. The adjustments are summarized in Table 1 and additional detail can be found Hits: 6 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdf4.3%). The figure below displays the year-over-year (YOY) growth rates for credit card, auto loan, mortgage and student loan debt. The following trends were observed: Credit card debt declined significantly (-11.3%) in 2020 when households received stimulus 3.5% from the prior year. For 2023 Q3, Pennsylvania mortgage debt grew 2.0% from the prior year, while student loans declined slightly (-0.8%). Mortgages and student loan debt comprise nearly 75% of all consumer debt, and these categories Hits: 6 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdfexpenditure trends. Demographic trends determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections and certain descriptive text the table, declining college enrollment also impacts state demo- graphic trends. Pennsylvania typically receives a large influx of non-resident students who attend college. The temporary students are counted as residents for the purpose of the Census. While most return to Hits: 6 |
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of Students by Decile; 1=smallest; 10=largest Full-time Administrators and Coordinators per 1,000 Students Administrative Spending per Student District-level definition: • Superintendents, assistant superintendents, program supervisors or coordinators and operations staff. • Building principals and Hits: 5 |
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfGuard Youth Chal- leNGe academies throughout the United States. Those reports note that it is important to maintain contact with student mentors after a student graduates from the residential program for at least a year. The mentors should be able to provide information on if Hits: 5 |
MTR-2017-04.pdfweek that one-third of people aged 18-34 live at home. Pennsylvania ranks 2nd highest in the nation for student debt. For PA graduates with student debt, the average debt level is $34,798. 2 The outflow of individuals leaving Pennsylvania includes those moving home after Hits: 5 |
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf4 Educational Tax Credits Scholarships and grants (FY 19-20 data and caps) ▪ EITC K-12: $135m cap | 40,720 students | $2,310 average ▪ EITC Pre-K: $12.5m cap | 6,660 students | $1,370 average ▪ EOSTC: $55m cap | 21,050 students | $1,980 average ▪ Innovative Educ. Programs: $37.5m | 1,195 grants Hits: 4 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdfworker contraction affects all age groups, but is relatively stronger for workers under age 35. 2 2 See “Is the Student Loan Moratorium Affecting Employment?” (March 2022) at http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/down- load.cfm?file=Resources/Documents/RB_2022_03_Student_Loan 2020 until the termination of the national public health emergency declaration). Figures do not include savings associated with the federal student loan repayment moratorium in place from April 2020 through August 2022, with an estimated value of $465 to $750 million Hits: 4 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdfbenefits and expanded child tax credits provides nearly $400 million to Pennsylvania residents in CY 2022. 2 See “Is the Student Loan Moratorium Affecting Employment?” (March 2022) at http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/down- load.cfm?file=Resources/Documents/RB_2022_03_Student_Loan 2020 until the termination of the national public health emergency declaration). Figures do not include savings associated with the federal student loan repayment moratorium in place from April 2020 through August 2022, with an estimated value of $465 to $750 million Hits: 4 |
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdftowards home ownership and mortgage debt? Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004 o Wave of college-age students: more student loan debt. o Does debt cause delays in home purchases, marriage and child bearing, thereby restraining growth? 12.June.2014 Hits: 4 |
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf More developed = more benefit to homeowners/landlords. 19.May.2017 Homeowners vs. Renters 21 19.May.2017 Changes in Student Enrollment District Group Five-Year Change Annual Rate Top 25% 3.3% 0.7% Second 25% -2.4% -0.5% rate of 1% or more. Growing vs. declining districts. Faster growing districts may experience inflation- adjusted declines in per-student revenue. Districts with greatest enrollment declines may experience largest increases in per-student revenue. 19.May.2017 Distributions 23 Hits: 4 |
NewsStand_2019_July.pdfLong-term care is not covered by Medicare and cost increases are absorbed by private wealth or state Medicaid programs. Student Debt Cancellation Led to General Deleveraging The July NBER Digest summarized a working paper that explored the link between student debt, other forms of credit utilization and labor market outcomes. Using a natural experiment created by recent collections lawsuits, the Hits: 4 |
MTR-2015-09.pdftax return, such as certain lower-income and elderly individuals. The data also exclude most temporary relocations of college-age students. Therefore, the net outflow from Pennsylvania was not due to college students returning to their home states. The IRS data show that the 25 and younger age group accounted for 2,661 Hits: 4 |
MER-2014-02.pdf6 percent) through 2013. (See table.) Large reductions in mortgage and credit card debt were partially offset by gains in student loan and auto debt. Some analysts were surprised that this deleveraging process continued into 2013 since it appeared to have can provide a boost to consumer spending. February 2014 Per Capita Debt Levels ‐ Pennsylvania Consumers 1 thousands of dollars Credit Student Annual Change Year Auto Card Mortgage 2 Loan 3 Total Dollar Percent 2003 $2,710 $2,820 $18,090 $3 Hits: 4 |
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdfimpasse resolved before default ▪ Federal Reserve largely done with rate hikes ▪ No collapse in asset markets: stocks and housing 2 Student loan repayment moratorium ends in Fall ▪ Supreme Court disallows forgiveness plan 3 Inflation continues to decelerate ▪ April Philadelphia CPI-U decline assumed ▪ Jul to Nov +7.5% | Dec to Apr +3.9% | May -1.0% (est.) ▪ More savings than assumed | student loan moratorium extended ▪ ERC much larger (FY 22-23): $2 billion (original), $8 billion (revised) May 24, 2023 12 Initial Hits: 4 |
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdfimpasse resolved before default ▪ Federal Reserve largely done with rate hikes ▪ No collapse in asset markets: stocks and housing 2 Student loan repayment moratorium ends in Fall ▪ Supreme Court disallows forgiveness plan 3 Inflation continues to decelerate ▪ April Philadelphia CPI-U decline assumed ▪ Jul to Nov +7.5% | Dec to Apr +3.9% | May -1.0% (est.) ▪ More savings than assumed | student loan moratorium extended ▪ ERC much larger (FY 22-23): $2 billion (original), $8 billion (revised) May 24, 2023 12 Initial Hits: 4 |
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdfnot change. Only two factors change. Economic growth (GDP, wages, unemployment rates). Demographics such as number of students, inmate population, the MA population and all residents. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 5 15.Nov.2012 Summary of in labor market. Consumers still “unwinding.” Rebuilding home equity. Paying down debt. Much uncertainty. Concern now shifts to student loan debt. PA second highest in nation at $29,960 per student. Where will the unexpected growth come from Hits: 4 |
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdfStock market correction | S&P 500 down 7% in January ▪ Fed tightening and raising interest rates ▪ Expiration of remaining relief: student loans, SNAP, rent assistance January 31, 2022 1 Economic Forecast: Stronger Wages and Inflation January 31, 2022 2 Annual Growth into economy ▪ Original Surveys: ~25% spent | ~75% saved or pays down debt ▪ Spending recirculating faster? (money velocity and economic multipliers) ▪ Student loan moratorium | no renter eviction tsunami | SNAP extension January 31, 2022 16 Active COVID Relief Programs (PA data) January 31 Hits: 4 |
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdffor TY 2020: (1) children born during the calendar year, (2) individuals previously listed as adult dependents (e.g., college students) and (3) other technical factors that would have resulted in under- or non-payment of EIPs in CY 2020. Based the out-of-state spending is likely larger because it would include travel, internet sales and even payments to college students attending out-of-state colleges. However, stimulus monies would also flow into Pennsylvania due to the same channels via residents Hits: 3 |
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdfrate of 1% or more. Growing vs. declining districts. Faster growing districts may experience inflation- adjusted declines in per-student revenue. Districts with greatest enrollment declines may experience largest increases in per-student revenue. 18 March 8, 2018 Changes In Student Enrollment 19 District Group Five-Year Change Annual Rate Top 25% 2 Hits: 3 |
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdfattitude towards home ownership and mortgage debt? Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004. Wave of college-age students: more student loan debt. Does debt restrain growth by delaying home purchases, marriage and child bearing? 2015 Pennsylvania Population Distribution 7 Hits: 3 |
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdfattitude towards home ownership and mortgage debt? Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004. • Wave of college‐age students: more student loan debt. • Does debt cause delays in home purchases, marriage and child bearing, thereby restraining growth? 7 Three Demographic Waves Hits: 3 |
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdfhomesteads have the same characteristics as currently-approved homesteads. June.05.2018 Woodwork Effect 18 June.05.2018 Changes in Student Enrollment District Group Six-Year Change Annual Rate Top 25% 4.3% 0.7% Second 25% -2.1% -0.4% rate of 1% or more. Growing vs. declining districts. Faster growing districts may experience inflation- adjusted declines in per-student revenue. Districts with greatest enrollment declines may experience largest increases in per-student revenue. June.05.2018 Distributing Replacement Hits: 3 |
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdfIt provides individualized post-secondary, pre-employ- ment, counseling, physical restoration and work-based learning services to approximately 1,300 students annually. The facility is primarily funded by fees for services. The primary goal of this activity is to provide vocational Institute (CTI) graduates. The CTI is a post-secondary accredited school within the HGAC, which graduated an average of 160 students per year over the time period. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 Workload (Individuals Hits: 3 |
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf3 91.7% 95.5% 93.7% 96.8% 97.0% 97.0% % SDs with required school nurse/student ratio 4 95.5% 94.9% 95.8% 95.8% 98.2% -- Health Professional Shortage Area (HPSA) # Physicians with J-1 visa Bureau Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (2017). Latest data available from this data set. 3 Percent of kindergarten students with two or more doses of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine. 2 Number of immunizations provided at state healthcare centers or Hits: 3 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf93 percent of education-related federal funds. The grants provide funding for improvement initi- atives for educationally-deprived students, students with disabilities and students with limited English pro- ficiency. Administration grants are expected to decline by $52 million (-28.0 percent) for Hits: 3 |
MTR-2017-05.pdfper capita consumer debt levels increased (1.3%) during the past nine months. An increase in credit card, auto and student loan debt more than offset a slight decline in mortgage debt. Second, the PA labor market could be weak, generating House Price Index 11 5.9% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,690 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,430 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 Industrial Hits: 3 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdfexpenditure trends. Demographic trends determine key populations such as the labor force that affects economic growth, ele- mentary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections and certain descriptive text sales as households spend down savings and incur debt, (2) higher prices (inflation) and (3) various federal policies (e.g., student loan moratorium and significant expansion of SNAP benefits). During CY 2020 and CY 2021, consumers dramatically shifted spending from services Hits: 3 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdfexpenditure trends. Demographic trends determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections and certain descriptive text 1 4.5 4.2 6.3 Home Equity Line of Credit -10.2 -3.8 -3.8 0.6 Student Loan 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.8 Total Consumer Debt 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.1 Hits: 3 |
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdftrends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this report are made declining college enrollment also impacts state demo- graphic trends. Pennsylvania typically receives a large influx of non-resident students who attend college. The temporary students are counted as residents for the purpose of the Census. While most return to their home Hits: 3 |
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 7 The Pennsylvania Economy – Consumer Debt • While per capita student loan debt continues to rise (3.9 percent in 2013:3), consumers are paying down or taking on less “all down by $1,360 from the previous year. The reduction is due to lower mortgage and credit card balances. PA Student Loan and All-Other Debt Per Capita – Year Over Year Growth Rates “All Other” includes mortgage, credit card, auto and Hits: 3 |
Budget Hearings Packet.pdfStatistics. Forecasts by IFO. The Pennsylvania Economy (5) Pennsylvania Consumer Debt and Spending For 2016: auto, home equity (HELOC) and student loan debt show strong growth; home mortgage debt contracts. Decline in mortgage debt may be due to (1) an aging HELOC (6%) 14.4% 12.2% 4.6% 2.7% -1.3% -3.1% 6.0% 2.1% 6.7% Student Loan (14%) 14.2% 12.3% 10.5% 7.9% 7.0% 11.9% 5.9% 2.8% 8.1% Hits: 3 |
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdfStatistics. Forecasts by IFO. The Pennsylvania Economy (5) Pennsylvania Consumer Debt and Spending For 2016: auto, home equity (HELOC) and student loan debt show strong growth; home mortgage debt contracts. Decline in mortgage debt may be due to (1) an aging HELOC (6%) 14.4% 12.2% 4.6% 2.7% -1.3% -3.1% 6.0% 2.1% 6.7% Student Loan (14%) 14.2% 12.3% 10.5% 7.9% 7.0% 11.9% 5.9% 2.8% 8.1% Hits: 3 |
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdfprior graph Consumer Credit Card Debt Explodes after Third EIP January 31, 2023 11 SNAP emergency allotments end Feb 2023 Student loans not repaid since Spring 2020, extended to June 2023 Lower income consumers under increasing stress $ billions Cash and Cash for one-time/new transfers and CNIT law changes. Detail on COVID Relief Programs for Pennsylvania January 31, 2023 15 Student Loan Repayments Student Loan Debt (federal) ~$70 billion Number PA Borrowers 1.83 million Average Payment $350 /month Monthly Total Hits: 3 |
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdfMajor Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt and Student Loan Debt 6 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 7 Sales and Use Tax – Motor Vehicles 8 Personal 0% 4.0% 5.0% $1.50 $2.50 $3.50 $4.50 6 The Pennsylvania Economy – Consumer Debt and Student Loan Debt • Consumer debt has leveled off since the end of the recession, stabilizing household balance sheets. Some consumers may Hits: 3 |
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdfdue to the nature of the services they provide (e.g., schools still need to provide meals to students, correctional facilities to inmates, etc.). A ban of EPS foodservice products, would require these organizations to spend an additional $40 million on products. Under a ban, these entities would also face higher costs that cannot be quantified. State Total Costs Students 1 Per Capita Increase (%) New Cost Increase ($) Maryland $3,181 865 $3.7 -- -- -- Pennsylvania $6,492 1,766 3.7 86% $12 Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdfunprecedented increases in capital gains and net business profits for tax year 2021 (PIT), (4) the continued moratorium on federal student loan repayments (SUT), (5) higher prices that were pushed forward to consumers (CNIT) and (6) shifts in consumer purchases to due to (1) higher than projected non-financial corporate domestic profits (CNIT), (2) the extension of the moratorium on federal student loan repayments (SUT) and (3) historically high general fund balances combined with rapidly rising interest rates (treasury). The January estimate Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdfby 14.3%. Multiple surveys found that many EIP recipients used those funds to pay down credit cards. Auto and student loan debt grew moderately. There is general concern regarding possible asset bubbles in the stock and housing markets due to 2% 2.4% 4.5% Home Equity Line of Credit -10.2% -10.7% -11.9% -10.2% -3.8% Student Loan 2.4% 3.3% 0.9% 1.5% 1.4% Source: Wall Street Journal, Yardeni.com, Federal Housing Finance Hits: 2 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf93 percent of education-related federal funds. The grants provide funding for improvement initi- atives for educationally-deprived students, students with disabilities and limited English proficiency. Admin- istration grants are expected to decline by $56 million (-30.0 percent) for FY 2019- Hits: 2 |
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdfTherefore, at the national level, it does appear that older workers departed the labor force at a relatively higher rate. • Student loan moratorium. Despite historically low unemployment rates and strong demand for labor, the student loan repayment moratorium entered its third year and has been extended seven times from March 2020 to December 2022, and Hits: 2 |
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdfto those under the normal retirement age, or anyone regardless of age, who retires earlier than they would otherwise? • Ongoing student loan moratorium. Despite historically low unemployment rates and strong demand for labor, the student loan repayment moratorium entered its third year, and could impact up to 1.8 million state residents who retain $3 Hits: 2 |
PICPA_Presentation.pdf Limited borrowing by PA consumers. Mortgage debt falls in first quarter. Increases to credit card, auto and student loans. Recent PA Economic Trends Recent Economic Trends June 7, 2017 11 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2% 3.5% 4.3% All Mortgage (66%) -1.7% -4.1% 1.3% 0.1% 2.0% -0.8% Student Loan (14%) 7.5% 6.9% 5.1% 2.5% 7.2% 7.2% All Other Debt (3%) -2.2% Hits: 2 |
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdfs Residence to assist with furnishing and special exhibits. In a typical year, The State Museum hosts nearly 40,000 students with school groups, holds over 1,200 private events and has more than 90,000 onsite visitors. Similar to historic data through December 31. Performance Measures for The State Museum 1.FY 20-21 and 21-22 include online/virtual student group tours. As the figure shows, the annual visitors to The State Museum remained fairly consistent before the COVID-19 Hits: 2 |
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf4 85% 87% 89% 95% 100% 100% % Campaign expense reports submitted electronically 39% 40% 38% 40% 42% 42% # Students registered to vote through GCEA program 2 -- -- -- 2,955 3,109 4,000 Notes: Campaign Finance and Civic Engagement 1 FY 15- FY 16-17. 2 GCEA stands for Governor's Civic Engagement Award. The GCEA program encourages high school student participation in elections. 3 LEP stands for Limited English Proficient. Total number of calls answered via Spanish language line or via the Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdfcomprise 93 percent of education-related federal funds. The grants provide funding for improvement initiatives for educationally-deprived students, students with disabilities and limited English proficiency. Administration grants are expected to decline by $59 million (-29.9 percent) for FY 2018-19 Hits: 2 |
Newsstand_2018_November.pdf(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Student Loan Debt Continues to Climb in 2018 Q3 On November 16, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for 2018 Q3. For Pennsylva- nia, the data show that per capita student loan debt across all consumers increased by 7.2% on a year-over-year basis. For other types of debt Hits: 2 |
MTR-2018-1.pdfHouse Price Index 11 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% n.a. 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 n.a. $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 n.a. Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2018-04.pdfHouse Price Index 11 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% n.a. 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $5,020 $5,060 $5,140 n.a. $5,810 $5,870 $5,940 n.a. Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2018-03.pdfHouse Price Index 11 6.5% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% Student Loan Debt 12 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,150 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 $5,880 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2018-02.pdfHouse Price Index 11 6.5% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% Student Loan Debt 12 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,150 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 $5,880 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-12.pdfHouse Price Index 11 6.4% 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-11.pdfHouse Price Index 11 6.4% 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-10.pdfHouse Price Index 11 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-09.pdfHouse Price Index 11 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-08.pdfor securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers House Price Index 11 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 Industrial Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-07.pdfor securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers House Price Index 11 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% n.a. 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 n.a. $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 n.a. Industrial Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-06.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.9% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,690 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,430 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-02.pdfHouse Price Index 11 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% 3.9% 3.3% 4.1% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,710 $4,690 $4,830 $4,920 $5,450 $5,430 $5,590 $5,690 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-01.pdfHouse Price Index 11 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% n.a. 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,710 $4,690 $4,830 n.a. $5,450 $5,430 $5,590 n.a. Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-12.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 3.0% 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 $4,830 $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 $5,590 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-11.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 3.0% 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 n.a. $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 n.a. Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-10.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% n.a. 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 n.a. $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 n.a. Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-08.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% 2.7% 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-06.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 3.6% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-05.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 3.6% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-04.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% n.a. 2.2% 2.5% 3.1% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 n.a. $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 n.a. Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-03.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 2.9% 2.2% 2.5% 3.1% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-02.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 2.9% 2.2% 2.5% 3.1% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-01.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% n.a. 2.7% 2.3% 2.7% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 n.a. $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 n.a. Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2015-11.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% n.a. 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 $5,180 $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2015-10.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% n.a. 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,590 $4,480 n.a. $5,180 $5,330 $5,180 n.a. Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2015-08.pdfHouse Price Index 11 4.8% 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,390 $4,480 $4,590 $4,480 $5.070 $5,180 $5,330 $5,180 Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers Hits: 2 |
MTR-2015-07.pdfHouse Price Index 11 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% n.a. 2.0% 2.1% 2.7% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,390 $4,480 $4,590 n.a. $5,070 $5,180 $5,330 n.a. Industrial or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdfmortgage debt, a 3.4% ($45 billion) increase in auto loan debt, and a 3.2% ($48 billion) increase in student loan debt over the prior year. During the same period, credit card debt and home equity line of credit debt 8.6% (-$34 billion), respectively. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government allowed forbearance on mortgage and student loans for six months (renewable), while many auto loan businesses offered optional forbearance. The New York Federal Reserve Bank reported Hits: 2 |
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf0% 2.7% 3.0% -0.8% Home Equity (6%) 7.1% 1.8% 1.3% 7.2% 6.7% Student Loans (14%) 2.0% 2.5% 2.3% 4.8% 8.1% All Other (3%) 11.6% 8.3% 10.7% 2.5% -1.6% Total (100%) 2.5% 1.8% 3.5% 4.0% 1.8% Exclude Student Loans 2.6% 1.7% 3.7% 3.9% 0.9% Note: Based on data from all consumers with a Hits: 2 |
MER-2014-11.pdfand the unusually cold winter at the start of 2014 may have de‐ layed home purchases. Second, tighter lending standards, student loan debt and relatively Ðlat wages may prevent younger, Ðirst‐ time homebuyers from entering the market. For cur‐ rent homeowners increase in the coming year as pent‐up demand meets a growing inventory of homes for sale. Tighter lending standards, student loan debt and modest wage growth will remain the primary impediments to future sales. November 2014 ‐8.0% ‐4.0% Hits: 2 |
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdfby 14.3%. Multiple surveys found that many EIP recipients used those funds to pay down credit cards. Auto and student loan debt grew moderately. There is general concern regarding possible asset bubbles in the stock and housing markets due to 2% 2.4% 4.5% Home Equity Line of Credit -10.2% -10.7% -11.9% -10.2% -3.8% Student Loan 2.4% 3.3% 0.9% 1.5% 1.4% Source: Wall Street Journal, Yardeni.com, Federal Housing Finance Hits: 2 |
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdfcomprise 93 percent of education-related federal funds. The grants provide funding for improvement initiatives for educationally-deprived students, students with disabilities and limited English proficiency. Administration grants are expected to decline by $60 million (-30.6 percent) for FY 2018-19 Hits: 2 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf4% All Consumer Debt 2.5% 1.8% 3.0% 0.0% n.a. 9.6% 2.0% 0.9% Student Loan Debt 5.6% 3.6% 5.3% 3.3% n.a. 7.3% 4.9% 3.9% Note: Source of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts for 2018 by IFO. Most data for 2017 are preliminary. Consumer and student loan debt are per capita, and data for 2017 are through third quarter. 6 PA Employment Gains and Losses by Hits: 2 |
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf28% in 2018. Youth Use All four states reported that current marijuana use remained steady or declined for high school students over the time frames considered. The Washington State Healthy Youth Survey reported marijuana use declined from 10% to 7% for from 8.7% in 2015-2016 to 10.4% in 2017-2018. State Youth Current Marijuana Use Colorado High school students' marijuana use declined from 22.0% in 2011 to 19.4% in 2017. Washington 12th-grade marijuana use remained steady Hits: 2 |
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf3 0.1 46.5 Note: Figures in dollar billions. Active COVID Relief Programs (PA Data) March 4, 2022 15 Student Loan Repayments Student Loan Debt (federal) ~$70 billion Number Borrowers 1.83 million Average Payment $350 /month Monthly Amount $640 million Share That Hits: 2 |
Economic_Summit_Presentation_Sept_2023.pdfincludes interest paid to trust funds (e.g., Social Security). Federal Deficit for 21-22 reduced $379 billion for disallowed student loan forgiveness, increased $330 billion in 22-23. Those adjustments reverse the treatment of disallowed student loan forgiveness to derive underlying deficit. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, RedFin Hits: 2 |
Sen_Maj_Pol_Comm_Brain_Drain_Workshop_04_30_2019.pdfData Requested for: Senate Majority Policy Committee Public Workshop: Student Flight (Brain Drain) from Pennsylvania April 30, 2019 Submitted by: Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Hits: 1 |
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdfper firm Consumer Credit Card Debt Explodes after Third EIP January 24, 2023 10 SNAP emergency allotments end Feb 2023 Student loans not repaid since Spring 2020, extended to June 2023 Lower income consumers under increasing stress $ billions $850 $900 $950 Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdffronts simultaneously ▪ Energy prices | Fed tightening | housing slows | raw materials ▪ Recent cracks appear: debt and subprime defaults rising rapidly ▪ Unknowns: student loans, international, extent of Fed tightening This forecast hedges the recession outlook for CY 2023 ▪ Solid wage growth but flat Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdflevel | difference of +400,000 ▪ ~500,000 receive PUA payments ▪ ~900,000 potential workers | excludes most college and high school students Translates into ~$1.9 billion per month (April 2021) ▪ Expires September 4 | dramatic impact: $500 per week to no income Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdfwill facilitate the purchase of necessities such as groceries or payment of regular bills such as rent, mortgage, utilities and student and car loans. The income will be received with a short delay and acts to “backfill” essential or non-discretionary Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdftipped workers). More difficult entry into the labor market for inexperienced workers, especially high school and college students who work part-time. The Department of Human Services projects that state expenditures would increase by $10.7 mil- lion in Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdfunprecedented increases in capital gains and net business profits for tax year 2021 (PIT), (4) the continued moratorium on federal student loan repayments (SUT), (5) higher prices that were pushed forward to consumers (CNIT) and (6) shifts in consumer purchases to Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdfemployment. Those individuals would not be reflected in current UC filings as many are high school and college students. The figure includes dependents who were employed in 2020 Q1 and lost their job, but are not eligible to file for Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdfappear to be overextended Modest growth in 2018 total consumer debt (+0.9%) Mortgage debt declines slightly, but student loan debt continues to grow May 20, 2019 12 PIT Forecast Underpredicts FY 18-19 May 20, 2019 13 June Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_01_SNAP.pdfa significant increase in the maximum monthly benefit. (See table.) • In August 2023, the Commonwealth expanded eligibility to certain college students. At the time, the administration did not provide an estimate of the impact. The SNAP expansion occurred despite flat population Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdfpopulation is institutionalized, which produced artificially low personal income and net earnings data. (Note: This analysis does not control for student, nursing home or institutionalized populations in other counties.) Counties with lower shares of net earnings are more likely to be Hits: 1 |
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdfoutcomes: Relatively minor statutory deductions that first convert Total Income to Adjusted Gross Income (e.g., educator expenses and student loan interest) fell by $0.7 billion. Total claimed itemized deductions fell $27.2 billion (-59.5 percent). Hits: 1 |
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdfof the population was institutionalized, which produced artificially low per capita income levels. (Note: This analysis does not control for student, nursing home or institutionalized populations in other counties.) Second, Montour County is a relatively small county and the median income Hits: 1 |
RB-2015-04.pdftips plus the hourly wage fall below the applicable minimum wage. Other exempt employees include golf caddies, certain learners and students, farm laborers, domestic service workers in a private home and newspaper deliverers. Table 2 Number of Workers, Hourly‐Paid Workers Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf1965 to 1984. • Unusual exits from labor force. What is the cause? Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004. • Student loan debt and household formation. 3.Dec.2014 Demographic Waves Drive Trends 5 3.Dec.2014 0 200 400 600 Hits: 1 |
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf1 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.2 Total 64.8 57.3 7.1 0.7 0.4 Student Loan Moratorium $5.7 $7.7 $7.7 $1.9 $1.9 Note: Unemployment Comp includes $5.2 billion (2020 Hits: 1 |
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf2020 from prior year Other relief programs expire at end of year | impact unclear Expiration of rent, mortgage and student loan forbearance Expiration of extra/special federal UC support: PUA and extended benefits November 18, 2020 9 Presentation is Hits: 1 |
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdfof Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey, northeast region. May 24, 2017 15 Senior Housing Debt Increases Home Mortgage Credit-Auto-Student Age Dollar Dollar Growth Dollar Growth 25 -$1,333 -$5,625 -51.7% $4,292 42.2% 35 -1,769 Hits: 1 |
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdfShare of statewide 3 7.8% 9.3% 7.0% 9.9% -- -- Arts Education Schools involved 172 187 131 126 -- -- Students participating 68,663 83,651 47,975 24,096 -- -- Other organizations involved 1 76 103 86 107 -- -- Other individuals participating Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf1 -- -- 554 388 265 300 # Total state volunteer firefighters # Total state career firefighters Output # SFA Entry Level Training students enrolled 2 -- -- 8,350 8,296 8,117 8,400 # Individuals certified at Firefighter 1 or higher -- -- 3,310 3,586 2 Hits: 1 |
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf2020 from prior year Other relief programs expire at end of year | impact unclear Expiration of rent, mortgage and student loan forbearance Expiration of extra/special federal UC support: PUA and extended benefits December 9, 2020 9 Presentation is Hits: 1 |
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf2 0.3 0.2 0.2 Total 64.8 58.3 8.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 Student Loan Moratorium $5.7 $7.7 $7.7 $1.9 $1.9 ?? Note: Unemployment Comp includes $5.2 (2020) and Hits: 1 |
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf2 0.3 0.2 0.2 Total 64.8 58.3 8.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 Student Loan Moratorium $5.7 $7.7 $7.7 $1.9 $1.9 ?? Note: Unemployment Comp includes $5.2 (2020) and Hits: 1 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdftotal Cash Income and (3) adjusted to reflect economic impacts not included in Cash Income (e.g., expiration of the student loan repayment moratorium, used excess savings from federal stimulus programs, etc.). Model projections are gross of any transfers, which are Hits: 1 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdfin total cash income and (2) adjusted to reflect economic impacts not reflected in income (e.g., expiration of the student loan moratorium, higher inflation, etc.). Model projections are gross of any trans- fers, which are deducted from projections to derive Hits: 1 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdfemployment. Those individuals would not be reflected in current UC filings as many are high school and college students. The figure includes dependents who were employed in 2020 Q1 and lost their job, but are not eligible to file for Hits: 1 |
NFIB_Feb_2024.pdfConsumers Remaining “excess” savings depleted for many Federal Feb 2024 Economic Forum Slide 7 Wage growth approaching normal rate (~4%) Student loan debt on-ramp ends in fall Lagged effect of higher interest rates (mortgage rates, compounding) Fiscal - on-going high Hits: 1 |
NewsStand_2019_May.pdfwere as follows: auto loans (3.6%), credit cards (3.0%), mortgages (-0.3%), home equity loans (-11.5%) and student loans (4.3%). By comparison, total per capita debt for all U.S. consumers increased by 2.4%. Jobs in Hits: 1 |
NewsStand_2019_June.pdfprivate colleges were the only category to record enrollment gains (3.2%). Pennsylvania college en- rollment declined by 16,853 students (-2.6%), which was the fourth largest decline in the country. Private Racetrack Industry Employs 30,000 On June 7 Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_June.pdfyear-over-year basis, the data reveal the following growth rates for total Pennsylvania consumer debt for the first quarter: student loans (5.0%), credit cards (4.7%), primary mortgages (1.8%), auto loans (1.2%) and home equity loans (-0 Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_August.pdf0.6%) from the same quarter in the prior year. While auto loan (0.5%), credit card (4.5%) and student loan (5.0%) debt increased, primary mortgage (-0.6%) and home equity loans (-4.5%) declined. By comparison, per capita Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-09.pdfHouse Price Index 11 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% 2.7% 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 Industrial Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdfloss, but only 12% of UC claims) are an exception to this trend. Workers in this age group are often students and not typically primary earners in their households, which may explain the lower share of UC claims. Monthly Economic Update Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdfSystem of Higher Education and state-related colleges/universities. Private colleges, universities and professional schools recorded similar job losses as students moved to remote learning or delayed admission in response to the pandemic. Employment in this subsector fell 17.1% (-31 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdfmade a reduced payment. Current negotiations in Congress include the extension of the existing moratorium on evictions as well as student loans, and substantial emergency assistance for renters. Economic impact payments of $600 to $1,200 per eligible adult (plus amounts Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdfimpending slowdown would likely be more noticeable in September as pent-up demand for leisure and summer travel ends and students and educators begin the regular school year. Monthly Economic Update August 2022 Pre-COVID Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Hits: 1 |
Kling_Presentation.pdfmarket measures, interest rates, income, and other economic factors Details of projections and underlying parameters for Social Security, Medicare, student loans, agriculture programs, and many other programs Releasing Data 10 CBO Sometimes CBO analyzes the accuracy of its own estimates Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf1.8% -- Mortgage Debt -0.7% 0.7% 3.5% 3.7% -- 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.6% -- Student Loan 2.7% 7.0% 4.5% 5.9% -- 4.1% 5.8% 3.9% 7.2% -- Auto Loan 9 Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdfAssistance Percentage (FMAP) used to reimburse states for Medicaid program costs. Figures do not include savings associated with the federal student loan repayment moratorium in place since April 2020, with an estimated value of $465 to $750 million per month. Independent Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdfother costs. - Across states, PA has one of the largest tax credits, but collects the least amount of outcome data. - Student performance and demographic data should be collected to evaluate program effectiveness. - There should be more accountability for contributions not used Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdfFYE is fiscal year ending. New Programs include programs that were not included in the prior budget year (e.g., Student and Family Affordability ($279 million), School Environmental Repairs Program ($300 million) and the School Safety and Security Fund - Mental Health Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdfmuch of Europe likely in recession ▪ Housing market’s rapid decline: does it spread? ▪ Residual stimulus: can consumers sustain spending? ▪ Student loans (moratorium and forgiveness)? Known: long-term challenges ▪ Housing affordability approaches record lows ▪ Low LFPRs + contracting working age demographic = worker Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdfRisks Unusually High Significant policy risks ▪ Stimulus impact lingers, but how much longer? ▪ Some remains | child tax credit and SNAP ▪ Student loan moratorium ends Jan 31, 2022 (began Mar 2020) ▪ Federal Reserve taper and interest rate adjustments ▪ New, expanded or extended Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdfby ~+3.8%. Inflation is modest (~+1.4%). Other economic fundamentals are sound. Consumers still cautious about debt, except student loans. Housing values up 4.4%. Corporate profits appear to rebound. Federal tax reform may have material impact. Hits: 1 |
EPLC_April_2024.pdfAdult Use Cannabis $260 School Safety and Security (Mental Health) $100 Transfer to PTTF ($283) PASSHE & Community Colleges $127 PHEAA Student and Family Affordability (FY25-26) $279 Intellectual Disabilities- Community Waiver $249 Fund State Police from General Fund (full phase in Hits: 1 |
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdf2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 2022.1 Stimulus to PA Residents and Business ($ billions) SNAP, Rent Assist, Expand CTC, Student Loan Freeze Federal UC Econ Imp Payments PPP $44 $33 2019 5.1% 2020 0.5% 2021 16.2% 2022 Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdfa very high proportion of self-employed lost employment and/or there is a very large amount of students and part-time workers who would ordinarily not qualify for unemployment compensation who are receiving payments. A number of states have noted Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf3.9% 4.5% 6.9% 1.2% -- All Mortgage 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% -1.1% 3.9% -- Student Loan-Other 3.6% 5.3% 5.2% 4.9% 3.1% -- All Debt 1.5% 3.0% 1.5% Hits: 1 |
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdfand expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and older residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this report Hits: 1 |
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdfand expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this report Hits: 1 |
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdfand expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this report Hits: 1 |
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdfNew York (FRBNY) pub- lishes quarterly tabulations on average consumer debt levels. The debt includes auto, credit card, mortgage and student loan debt and corresponds to all individuals who have a credit card. Although high debt levels may in- hibit consumer Hits: 1 |
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdfis astudent in a school, college, university ora course of vocational or technical training designed to fit the student for gainful employment. (3) The offender has an employment handicap, as determined by an examination acceptableto orordered by the court orboard. (4 Hits: 1 |