IFO Releases
PA State-Local Taxes Moderately Regressive
December 17, 2024 | Economics and Other
As part of its statutory duties, the IFO must “(p)rovide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” Tax incidence is a key component of any economic impact analysis. This research brief and methodology compute effective tax rates (ETRs) to track tax incidence and assess the progressivity or regressivity of specific taxes and the overall state and local tax system. The methodology provides a detailed explanation of the data sources and assumptions used by the analysis.
Gasoline Revenues Down $250 Million Annually
December 12, 2024 | Economics and Other
This research brief examines gasoline purchases four years after the height of the pandemic. Gasoline tax revenue is down $250 million per annum due to reduced consumption.
Tax Credits and Economic Development Incentives
December 10, 2024 | Economics and Other
This report presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2019-20 through FY 2024-25. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2024-25 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and will differ from final amounts claimed or awarded. The report also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization.
2024 Impact Fee Estimate
December 09, 2024 | Energy
This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2024 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2025). Collections are estimated to be $164 million, a decrease of $16 million from the prior year.
Natural Gas Production Report: 2024 Q3
December 03, 2024 | Energy
This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices.
November 2024 Revenue Update
December 02, 2024 | Revenue & Economic Update
The Commonwealth collected $2.93 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of $130 million (-4.2%) compared to November 2023.
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report
November 27, 2024 | Pension Analysis
Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $22.0 billion in General Fund revenues (1.8%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year).
Treasury Collections Begin to Contract
November 25, 2024 | Economics and Other
After peaking in FY2023-24 at $720 million, Treasury collections are projected to drop by $321 million (-45%) for FY2025-26 due to General Fund deficit spending and declining interest rates.
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis
November 21, 2024 | Wage Contracts
This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and the Pennsylvania State Corrections Officers Association (PSCOA).
The wage contract analysis was reposted on November 21, 2024 to reflect updated cost information received from the Office of Administration on November 13, 2024.
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook
November 14, 2024 | Revenue Estimates
The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.