IFO Releases
State and Local Tax Incidence in Pennsylvania
February 19, 2025 | Economics and Other
Director Knittel submitted an article for publication in the February 3, 2025 edition of Tax Notes State. It reviews recent results from the Pennsylvania tax incidence model and discusses factors that make state and local tax systems appear more regressive than they are in practice.
State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison
February 13, 2025 | Economics and Other
This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and other sources to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) state and local effective tax rates across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.
Long-Term Budget Outlook Update
February 11, 2025 | Economics and Other
The IFO updated its baseline deficit projections based on new spending data from the Executive Budget. The revised projections are $3.5 billion (24-25), $6.0 billion (25-26) and $6.9 billion (26-27) under current laws and policies. If the projections hold, then the General Fund surplus would be depleted in 25-26 and the Rainy Day Fund in 26-27.
Economic Forum
February 03, 2025 | Economics and Other
Director Knittel made a brief presentation at the NFIB Economic Forum.
January 2025 Revenue Update
February 03, 2025 | Revenue & Economic Update
The Commonwealth collected $3.92 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $16 million compared to January 2024.
Pennsylvania Electricity Update
February 03, 2025 | Energy
This report utilizes data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to display recent trends for the Pennsylvania and regional electricity markets. The report examines recent trends in net generation, net exports, CO2 emissions and prices.
Economic and Natural Gas Update
January 30, 2025 | Energy
Fiscal Analyst III Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.
Mid-Year Revenue Update FY 2024-25
January 28, 2025 | Revenue Estimates
The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year revenue update for fiscal year 2024-25 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May.
Options to Fund School District Property Tax Elimination
January 24, 2025 | Economics and Other
In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates a previous analysis on potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated.
Pennsylvania Child Care Industry Update
January 23, 2025 | Economics and Other
This research brief provides tabulations of child care industry employment, wages and average annual costs. For 2024 Q2, Pennsylvania private child care employment now exceeds pre-pandemic levels (2019 Q2) by 1,200 employees, while average industry wages increased significantly (31%). Child care costs vary widely depending on family income and access to the Child Care Works program.