IFO Releases
Natural Gas Production Report: 2024 Q3
December 03, 2024 | Energy
This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices.
November 2024 Revenue Update
December 02, 2024 | Revenue & Economic Update
The Commonwealth collected $2.93 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of $130 million (-4.2%) compared to November 2023.
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report
November 27, 2024 | Pension Analysis
Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $22.0 billion in General Fund revenues (1.8%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year).
Treasury Collections Begin to Contract
November 25, 2024 | Economics and Other
After peaking in FY2023-24 at $720 million, Treasury collections are projected to drop by $321 million (-45%) for FY2025-26 due to General Fund deficit spending and declining interest rates.
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis
November 21, 2024 | Wage Contracts
This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and the Pennsylvania State Corrections Officers Association (PSCOA).
The wage contract analysis was reposted on November 21, 2024 to reflect updated cost information received from the Office of Administration on November 13, 2024.
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook
November 14, 2024 | Revenue Estimates
The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.
Economic and Budget Outlook
November 05, 2024 | Revenue Estimates
The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2024-25 to FY 2029-30 on November 14 at 1:30 pm. The report will include an assessment of the General Fund surplus ($6.6 billion at end of FY 23-24) and Rainy Day Fund ($7.0 billion) under current law and policies. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.
October 2024 Revenue Update
November 01, 2024 | Revenue & Economic Update
The Commonwealth collected $3.38 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $137 million compared to October 2023.
2024 Demographic Outlook
October 24, 2024 | Economics and Other
Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute. The IFO will release the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2024-25 to 2029-30 in November 2024.
How Did School Districts Use COVID Funds?
October 22, 2024 | Economics and Other
This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education to examine how school districts used $6.0 billion of temporary COVID-19 funds.