Releases

Pension Analysis

Act 100 of 2016 transferred the responsibility to provide actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or pension plans to the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The IFO’s current Pension Analysis Policies is available here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policies_(January_1_2024).pdf

All actuarial notes issued by the IFO are posted on this website and available in the “Actuarial Notes” link below. The IFO also publishes statutory and special reports on pension issues in the Commonwealth available in the “Special Reports” link.

IFO Releases

Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report

November 27, 2024 | Pension Analysis

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $22.0 billion in General Fund revenues (1.8%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year).

Full Report

Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test Report

February 28, 2024 | Pension Analysis

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS’ baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2024-25 to FY 2051-52, the Commonwealth will use $53.0 billion in General Fund revenues (2.7%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of assumptions.

Tags: analysis, pension, psers

Full Report

Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report

December 01, 2023 | Pension Analysis

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $24.9 billion in General Fund revenues (2.0%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year).

Full Report

House Bill 1379 Presentation

September 07, 2023 | Pension Analysis

Fiscal Analyst Mathieu Taylor made a presentation to the House Local Government Committee regarding House Bill 1379, P.N. 1539. The bill would provide cost-of-living adjustments for certain retired municipal police officers and firefighters.

Tags: pension, presentation

Full Report

Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test Report

March 01, 2023 | Pension Analysis

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2023-24 to FY 2050-51, the Commonwealth will use $46.5 billion in General Fund revenues (2.3%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

Tags: analysis, pension, psers

Full Report

Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report

December 01, 2022 | Pension Analysis

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

Tags: analysis, pension, sers

Full Report

Financial Impact of SERS Pre-Funding Option

June 09, 2022 | Pension Analysis

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain SERS employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all SERS employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021.

Tags: brief, pension, research

Full Report

Public Pension Status and Outlook

September 28, 2021 | Pension Analysis

The IFO released a research brief that provides a status update and outlook for public pension systems in Pennsylvania. Data for state and local systems show that while the fiscal health of public pension systems has improved in recent years, the overall unfunded liability remains significant.

Full Report

Actuarial Impact of Act 5 - School District Pension Contributions

June 28, 2017 | Pension Analysis

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association (PSBA) regarding the impact of recently enacted pension legislation (Act 5 of 2017) on school district pension contributions.

Full Report

Actuarial Note for Senate Bill 1; A01354 and A01558

June 03, 2017 | Pension Analysis

The actuarial note analyzes a proposal to amend the Public School Employees' Retirement Code and the State Employees' Retirement Code to (1) require most new employees to select one of three new plan design options and (2) make certain actuarial funding changes. The plan design options include two hybrid plans consisting of defined benefit and defined contribution components. The third option is a stand-alone defined contribution plan. 

On June 5, 2017 the IFO updated the actuarial note by clarifiying certain language in the summary of Senate Bill 1. A list of the changes is available here

Full Report